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Thread: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions

  1. #1
    Depraved Prince of AP Monkey King's Avatar
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    Default Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions

    Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread




    [youtube]7DbFYsi9iSg[/youtube]

    This is spreading faster and getting bigger by the day, the Random News thread is turning into a singular topic a little quick so we might as well make it a real thread for all our needs, news bites, and discussion.

    For those of you who don't know there's been a widespread degree suddenly of revolts and protests in Arab speaking countries against their many authoritarian governments mostly lit from economic discontent and hugely young populations.

    Valued above all else is the real time living of these events any members who live in any of these nations and want to reach out and tell the world what's going on. Tigerlilly was and is our hero still, the angel of the thread. And anyone else who wants to talk (yes Bar Kuma, you too) can drop their words here for us. We'd love to hear. We're behind you in spirit.

    So far Tunisia toppled it's regime. Then Egypt toppled it's regime. Now Libya is soon to topple it's own.

    Now let's look at the players!
    I'll try to keep this updated.

    THE SCENE:


    THE PLAYERS:

    MOROCCO

    Type:
    Constitutional Monarchy
    Leader: King Mohammed VI

    Forecast: Anger here is based around corruption and awkward government, not regime change. Maybe the monarchy will finally see a better future in becoming figureheads and letting a parliament deal with ruling.
    Situation: Reforms and minor protests.

    ALGERIA

    Type: Authoritarian Presidency
    Leader: Abdelaziz Bouteflika

    Forecast: Algeria has been buzzing along protest wise during all the major protests so far, never really reaching a fever pitch of any sort, but never fully ebbing. If and when Libya goes it might be the final straw to make things blow up for real.
    Situation: Minor unrest, some immolations. Government concessions.

    MAURITANIA

    Type: Shaky Deeply Flawed Democracy w' Authoritarian tendencies
    Leader: Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz

    Forecast: This nation is incredibly unstable, more likely a military coup then a people power attempt at healthy government.
    Situation: Minor unrest and self immolations.

    TUNISIA

    Ty
    pe: Interim Government
    Leader: Zine El Abidine Ben Ali

    Forecast: Looks like a storm just passed! Liberated!
    Situation: Dictator run out of town. Great Success!


    LIBYA

    Type: Interim Government
    Leader: Colonel Gaddafi

    Forecast: A hard road ahead. But the bastard is dead.
    Situation: Civil war over, much much rebuilding to be done. The tyrant is dead, his sons fled or also.

    EGYPT

    Type: Interim Military Gov YO WORD??
    Leader: Hosni Mubarak

    Forecast: KIDNAP THAT FOOL
    Situation: WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT WHAT

    NORTH SUDAN

    Type: Military Dictatorship
    Leader: Omar al bashir

    Forecast: More likely then you think. Though more likely an internal coup. Some might be angry at Omar for letting the South go free among other things. Pair that with how goddamned poor the country is and who knows. And yes this is an Arab country (mostly), black or not. For a discussion on that go look in that "Strawhats in our world" thread in the General Anime section.
    Situation: Self Immolation, Minor Unrest. Bashir has promised not to run for re-election.

    SOMALIA

    Type: Republics, Islamic states, Interim Govs, Warlords, Pirate Captains
    Coolest Ex Patriot: K'naan

    Forecast: Ironically most of these various warring authorties probably have more satisfied people then places like Egypt. Somaliland for instance. And no...Somali is an ethnic group all it's own, but they're veeery close to the Arabs in some ways.
    Situation:
    A minor protest against the warring factions in Mogadishu...as if it would matter.

    JORDAN

    Type: Constitutional Monarchy
    Leader: King Abdullah II

    Forecast: Jordan is much stabler and free then most, but also economically weak in many regards. An otherwise tolerated degree of repression might not be so tolerated if the economy sloped much lower.
    Situation: Middling unrest. Cabinet sacked by King. New one chosen. Further reforms.

    LEBANON

    Type: Divisionary Religion Based Democracy
    Leader: Michel Suleiman

    Forecast: Lebanon is tied up all sorts of shit right now unrelated to any of this. Namely an investigation into a presidential assassination. The usual Hezbollah/Israel nastiness defines this poor nations day to day issues. Their politics are a mess, but I don't think people feel crushed by them in particular.
    Situation: Unrelated mess.

    SYRIA

    Type: Baathist Dictatorship
    Leader: Bashar al-Assad

    Forecast: The second most deserving toppling belongs to Mr. Assad. Syria was the OTHER country to host a Baath party dictatorship like Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. They've been pretty quiet toward all but Israel and Lebanon though and not attracted a ton of Western interest or ire like Saddam. They're pretty nasty though don't be fooled. Assad falling would be excellent news, but he's well backed up by his military and secret police. And they responded to unrest from one Islamist group my performing an assualt so violent on one city they held that the like hasn't been seen since the middle ages. Poor though Syria is....I unfortunately doubt a revolt.
    Situation: Serious violent crackdown, burgeoning potential of civil war, secretarian divides as well.

    IRAQ

    Type: Shaky Interim Council
    Leader: Interim Council trying to form government still

    Forecast: Sometimes people just want to protest against a goddamn mess, and so the people of Iraq are out against corruption and mismanagement.
    Situation: Middle protests, some governor stepped down in Basra and shit, Kurds protesting against their regions dudes as well.

    SAUDI ARABIA

    Type: Absolute Monarchy
    Leader: King Saud

    Forecast: Repressive as hell with basically zero political expression? Shit! But very economically successful? EH....uh. The Saudi Monarchy is well backed by foreign interests and military so I doubt much would happen. But the Arab world don't like these guys much. And damn! Probably the most sexist nation on earth this side of the Taliban's Afghanistan. Women are practically lower then animals here. They have every reason to revolt...
    Situation: Minor unrest, reported self immolater.

    KUWAIT

    Type:
    Constitutional Monarchy
    Leader: Emir Sabah

    Forecast: EXTREMELY unlikely. Kuwait has a fairly free government for a true monarchy. And it's one of the most socially liberalized of the Arab states. And above all it's DAMNED rich. The average person here is probably richer then most of us North American/Western European/East Asian mucky mucks. Would you revolt?
    Situation: Some minor protests with minor aims.

    BAHRAIN

    Type:
    Constitutional Monarchy
    Leader: Emir al-Khalifa

    Forecast: Much more likely then I thought apparently. Security forces are being stupid, and apparently a majority of the people are Shiite, whereas the rulers are Sunni. Creating potential tension I didn't forsee.
    Situation: Getting really bad.
    QATAR

    Type:
    Absolute Monarchy
    Leader: Emir Hamad

    Forecast: Very very unlikely. Also a prosperous ass oil kingdom. Also preparing for a World Cup in the future.
    Situation: Nothing.

    UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

    Type:
    Plural Monarchy
    Leader: Emir al-Nahyan

    Forecast: The home of Dubai? Riot? Extremely unlikely. Well...sort of. There are scores of desperately poor people here, but none of them are locals. They're migrant workers from places like India. And they are treated terribly.
    I doubt they'd do anything though...they have so little power.
    Situation: Nothing.

    YEMEN

    Type: Authoritarian Presidency/Pseudo Democracy
    Leader: Ali Abdullah Saleh

    Forecast: Saleh is entrenching himself even if he has promised not to run for re-election, he's just not giving in to continued demands. And starting on crazy shit like blaming the US for the protests. Yemen continues to worry me, I want to root for all these revolutions, but Yemen has always teetered on being a failed state and heavy instability could just....you know. Saleh is the one who should help make peace by resigning of course.
    Situation: Major unrest. Saleh could leave soon.

    OMAN

    Type:
    Absolute Monarchy
    Leader: Ben Qaboos the Gay Sultan

    Forecast: Man things are heating up big time here. I doubt Quaboos will resort to Mubarak tactics though, he's pretty respected by the people enough that he has lots of room to wiggle. I see this being similar to Bahrain in terms of escalation. The ultimate end here might be for Oman to transform into a more true constituitonal monarchy. A respected monarchy doesn't necessarily get French revolutioned, it may simply go (rest of) western/northern european style and become a delightful ceremonial bit of nothing. If Quaboos is smart (and I think he is) he will set this up for after his death. He may already have been, but the protests will possibly hasten this reform. And if he's truly smart he will answer the protests fully and honestly.
    Situation: Minor protests for reform spreading now. Sultan has ordered a study into a parliament.


    Country Profiles Continued:
    http://apforums.net/showpost.php?p=2108294&postcount=6

    THE FALLEN DOMINO COUNT:

    The major major revolutions will be counted as dominos.

    1. Tunisia:

    2. Egypt: √
    3. Libya:

    4. Yemen: ???
    5. Syria: ....
    Last edited by Monkey King; October 22nd, 2011 at 09:00 AM.

  2. #2
    Must've been rats Sakonosolo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    Nice thread. Hopefully it'll be used a lot.

  3. #3

    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    I'll just put up what I put up everywhere else: However they got it, NPR reported that Egypt is rolling out the anti-terrorism units into the streets.
    Last edited by ChesCa; January 27th, 2011 at 10:21 PM.

  4. #4
    Must've been rats Sakonosolo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    I'm not sure if this is what you're talking about but
    http://www.presstv.com/detail/162337.html

    Army has been sent out as well.

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    Excellent Thread!

    I'll try and keep my eye on these events.

  6. #6
    A real rain will come... Rank: Failed Mutineer JERK DISEASE's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    DJIBOUTI

    Type: Authoritarian Presidency
    Leader: Ismail Omar Guelleh

    Forecast: Dude has been holding on to power over his limit, and recently did some good ol' fashioned term futzing. US military base in the region, Obama's headache must be huge!
    Situation: Thousands of people on the move! For a super tiny country thats big!

    Non Arab World Nations

    IRAN

    Type: uh.....bizarre mix of democracy and religious dictatorship. The religious dictatorship basically hovers over a democracy and say what it can or can't do within Islamic perimeters. So basically it's kind of a bullshit democracy in that it's limited to what unelected people want from it. And apparently even it's votes are rigged! So basically just a theocracy.
    Unelected Leader: Ali Khamenei

    "Elected" Leader: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

    Forecast: God. This is the biggest domino, and maybe every other domino's force smashing against it might not make it fall. The government isn't a puppet of foreign interests like Egypt was to the US, or Syria is to Iran. Iran works for Iran and doesn't answer to anybody. They're entrenched in a hugely important position and will fight hard before even conceding ground. Further to the point Iran is propped up by a praetorian guard force known as the Revolutionary Guard, who are fiercely loyal to the regime, and have a great deal of money invested in various parts of the country. I don't see simple protests as bringing such an organization down. But it only.... By the way, if Iran falls, so does Syria. Syria is a dependent baby on Iran's nipple.
    Situation: Iran tried huge protests in 2009 if you recall and they tapered off. Too bad. But with what happened in Tunisia and fuckin' Egypt? The people are ready to go again, and this time maybe for keeps.
    Last edited by JERK DISEASE; February 18th, 2011 at 01:28 PM.
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  7. #7
    Must've been rats Sakonosolo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    He means sending them in I think.

  8. #8

    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    I edited it after my mistake. They're rolling them out.

  9. #9
    A real rain will come... Rank: Failed Mutineer JERK DISEASE's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    Wonderful...
    That's just great.
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    http://www.presstv.com/detail/162335.html

    Fucking shut up for once in your life Israel.
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  11. #11
    The Final Countdown Akumu's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    And here we go.

    This is going to get real interesting real fast.
    Last edited by Akumu; January 27th, 2011 at 10:34 PM. Reason: Avatar changed to show my support

  12. #12
    Must've been rats Sakonosolo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    I'm sure there's a perfect metaphor to cover this but I can't think of any at the moment.

    Edit: Wait, Israel's the kid(s) circling the fight screaming "FIGHT".

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    A real rain will come... Rank: Failed Mutineer JERK DISEASE's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    I've been pissed about our past support of monster regimes during the Cold War. But now that US funded military is killing and crushing protesters I'm mad right now.

    Biden is a moron, and Obama is being a coward.
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  14. #14

    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    I found this picture pretty inspiring.



    I read somewhere that protests are supposed to begin at 5AM Eastern Time. That's a little over four hours from now. It's exciting, but terribly frightening at the same time.
    Handsome man save me from the monsters.
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    A real rain will come... Rank: Failed Mutineer JERK DISEASE's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    Fund a monster to avoid monsters and you make a worse monster then you could imagine.

    Example: IRAN
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  16. #16
    Must've been rats Sakonosolo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    There were tweets saying that the tear gas canisters being shot said "Made in US" on them. Fucking disgusting.

  17. #17
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    I'm honestly thinking of contacting my representatives.

    Our media should be taking the government to task on this. Maddow, Stewart, goddamned Beck, I don't care.
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  18. #18

    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    Small tidbit: A noble peace prize winner (I didn't catch his name) is calling for the president to resign. He might even be in Egypt right now.
    Also, in case I can't listen to it, NPR will be covering Egypt, at the very least in part, on 'All Things Considered' tomorrow, in case they can give us something new.

  19. #19
    Must've been rats Sakonosolo's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    Apparently there's little to no coverage whatsoever.

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    Smiles all around. Ubiq's Avatar
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    Default Re: Rock the Casbah: Arab-World Revolutions Watch Thread

    Of the Nothing crowd, the only one I would think could have its situation quickly go bad is the UAE if only because they're relatively vulnerable to a real estate bubble popping. If that happened, you'd have a bunch of poor immigrants, a bunch of ruined investors, decades of infrastructure investment poured down a drain, and a whole lot of anger. The rest aren't anywhere near as vulnerable though the UAE is one of the few oil countries to really diversify; it's just that they chose to go into a field that's extremely risky right now.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jerk Disease
    Fund a monster to avoid monsters and you make a worse monster then you could imagine.

    Example: IRAN
    Are you implying that American foreign policy is somehow to blame for its horrible, horrible mistakes over the last half century? Do you want the Communiststerrorists to win?

    Also: IRAQ, CHILE, hell, pick a country that wasn't Communist and that had a dictator.
    Last edited by Ubiq; January 27th, 2011 at 10:52 PM.
    Complicating things since 2009.

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