The Salafi Al-Nour Party has endorsed liberal Islamist candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh as their candidate of choice for the Presidential Election. Fotouh was expelled from the Muslim Brotherhood last year for announcing his intention to run for President despite the Muslim Brotherhood's announcement that they would not field a candidate for the election.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia's relations with Egypt have soured lately with the Saudis closing their embassy in Egypt along with two consulates elsewhere in that country following a protest of around 1,000 Egyptians at the Cairo embassy. The problem stems from the arrest a while back of Ahmed al-Gizawi, a lawyer from Egypt who specializes in human rights. al-Gizawi says that he was tried in absentia and sentenced to a year in prison and twenty lashes for insulting King Abdullah. Considering that Abdullah made comments supporting Mubarak last year, al-Gizawi probably issued the reported insults then. Then again, he also filed a complaint with the Saudi government over their treatment of Egyptian prisoners last year and that might have been the source of the alleged inflammatory rhetoric.
At any rate, he was arrested when he arrived in Jeddah for a pilgrimage. Saudi authorities say that he wasn't actually dressed like somebody on a pilgrimage and was actually arrested for transporting 21,000 Xanax pills into the country. Xanax is illegal under Saudi law apparently as people might accidentally become happy if they aren't suffering from anxiety attacks. At a guess, half the royal family probably eats them like Tic Tacs just because. Relations between the two countries are probably at their worst since Egypt and Israel worked out a peace accord in '79 as a result of the incident.
I'm seeing a future middle east with fairly prosperous democracies and stable countries throughout the region, from Syria over to Morocco, with a good more liberal and calmed religious attitude growing in from the gorgeous Arab Switzerland of Tunisia. Israel having made deals with the Palestianians, not friends, but a sort of live let live thing set in place.
Turkey has grown up and grown powerful, the mid-eastern Japan with economic muscle so good that it doesn't even need the EU. The Kurds in Iraq, Iran and Turkey have all received politcal rights and autonomy. Cyprus has reunited even.
Iran has had a second revolution, and after years of religious rule the people have become the most secular in the region, knowing full well the danger of political religion. Iran is even MORE successfult han Turkey! Persia's might is back at last. A great boon to the world.
Oman and the Gulf nations are mini Luxembourgs, and even poor Yemen is at least sort of like the regions Ukraine.
And.....Saudi Arabia. Is still a fascist shithole because of years of soft permissive weener behavior from the world thanks to their oil. Which has since become useless thanks to new fuel technology.
Do you see "indications" that it will go that way, or you "wish" it'll go that way?
I'd like to be optimistic, but to me, it looks like things are about to go ka-boom. Specially the Israel-Iran tension, I can't see that ending well. Then the United States taking part in Israel's side, then more Islamic countries siding with Israel. . .
Am I being too dramatic here, maybe?
Things going Ka-Boom tend to be part of those very positive developments sometimes. History tells us this much. So within reason tension with Iran (of which Israel is hardly the sole player, Turkey and the Arab Sunnis are rivals at best and enemies at worst with Iran too), could somehow work out to hasten along developments around the place. Iran's regime not surviving for instance.
You can't underestimate the hidden cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. As well as Turkey's competition of interest.
They may not like Israel, or even hate it, but they're much more in hate with Iran. Israel is a symbolic enemy, Iran is an actual one.
The one country that may side with Iran is Iraq, now that Syria is uh...busy. And even Iraq risks renewed civil war if they do.
Well, even a conflict of that (very relatively) small scale scares the shit out of me, considering how trigger happy we can get with nuclear weaponry.
But I'm even more concerned with bigger players to enter the fray. Hasn't Ahmedineyad (is that the correct spelling?) been doing some pretty heavy touring in South America? I gather he has some sort of "allies" there, and lately South America is acting kind of weird, specially with my country, Spain, nationalizing spanish companies (first was Argentina with oil company Repsoil and now Bolivia with electric company REE), and acting defiant to the European Union. I know, I'm getting kinda paranoid on this whole thing, but I'm seeing a bigger conflict, I don't know why. It's an impression I'm getting lately.
(I'd continue trying to add Russia, China and North Korea into this puzzle, but maybe that would be pushing it. . .)
Ed: That being said, man, do we deserve to get our companies "stolen". That goes to show the joke of a country Spain has become. And of course, an oil company does not represent me in any way shape or form.
Last edited by kouch_lee; May 1st, 2012 at 02:08 PM.
ALBA? lol, those guys wish they were relevant. All they ever do is annoy us and you. They're harmless.But I'm even more concerned with bigger players to enter the fray. Hasn't Ahmedineyad (is that the correct spelling?) been doing some pretty heavy touring in South America?
Nationalizing companies isn't a political move inherently. Those countries, especially Bolivia (very poor place) want to try and steer their natural resources back into their own pockets and out of those of foreign companies.I gather he has some sort of "allies" there, and lately South America is acting kind of weird, specially with my country, Spain, nationalizing spanish companies (first was Argentina with oil company Repsoil and now Bolivia with electric company REE), and acting defiant to the European Union. I know, I'm getting kinda paranoid on this whole thing, but I'm seeing a bigger conflict, I don't know why. It's an impression I'm getting lately.
Argentina is a sane place they aren't part of ALBA or any of that Bolivarian nonsense.
The wierdness down there stems from general anger at the way they've been treated in the past century. As pawns in the Cold War. It's just instead of a bunch of people left hating Russia (Eastern Europe) they have grudges against the US and it's allies. That's why you have a lot of defiance down there, and it's that same feeling of resentment that keeps people voting for exploitative clowns like Chavez.
Though Chavez makes me wonder sometimes they can't be taken THAT seriously in the sense of allying with Iran in any meaningful way. It's a phase they need to go through, to get that feeling of being shat on off their shoulders. That's all it is, and it won't lead to anything dangerous.
In fact what's happening is countries like Brazil are coming finally into economic and international power, and finding that their old sense of victimization doesn't fit their new huge shiny body. And as such are quietly adapting to the dignity of a world power, or at least a content economically comfortable nook.
ALBA is just the ugliest manisfestation of this. Look for it to unravel with lightning speed.
China is mostly harmless, if anything China's threat on the world stage is that it's the ultimate annoyingly neutral cock blocker. It really badly wants to project this image of harmony and non-interference (to the point of not calling a spade a spade). So the idea of them going to war over Iran is silly. If anything if some huge war did break out, China would love it for the ability to sit back and watch rivals fuck eachother up.(I'd continue trying to add Russia, China and North Korea into this puzzle, but maybe that would be pushing it. . .)
Russia....mostly similar. I highly doubt Russians will tolerate their government dragging them into some war over Iran of all places.
North Korea? What are they gonna do?
sry for killing your empire brosef, pullitzer was rely convincing and stuffEd: That being said, man, do we deserve to get our companies "stolen". That goes to show the joke of a country Spain has become. And of course, an oil company does not represent me in any way shape or form.
Despite having a nuclear arsenal, North Korea's military power is all but embarrassing. However, South Korea's is even more so (I think that is a historical trend for Korea, with the northern part as armed to the teeth and the south as a bustling trading port).
As for the Middle East, would it be possible for the Middle East to unite as an empire like it has in the past? I don't think the wars to achieve that will be pleasant though.
South Korea has one of the largest armies in the world, and unlike the North it's a modern well funded army. So I don't really know what you're saying the North has on them.
The North has the nukes is all, and more troops maybe but considering those troops are barely kept fed and armed with 60's Soviet crap I think we can see how numbers don't matter so much.
What does NK's massive army do, exactly? Apart from patrol the border?
Arabs are a widespread group you know, the folks in Morocco don't really have much in common with people in Dubai aside from religion and deserts. Even Arabic is really different across the board. Ask Tigerlilly or Bar Kum about how easily they can understand Gulf Arabic relative to their own.
Plus there's ethnic minorities in there who wouldn't be thrilled. Druz, Berbers, Kurds, Assrians, Christians and any Shiite people since this country would be hella dominate Sunni.
I don't think it would work. And I really doubt most Tunisians for instance have even the slightest fantasy of becoming united with places like Yemen.
--- Update From New Post Merge ---
By this point so many new recruits might come from the famine generations that single South Korean troops could probably beat a whole pack of them up in a fist fight due to malnutrition.
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As an update on the diplomatic squabble between Saudi Arabia and Egypt, the Saudis handled it by throwing money at the problem until it went away... more or less.
Megrahi is Dead.
I wonder how will western states react if Muslim Brotherhood wins egypt elections
I dont think there will be any noticable reaction, they dont expect friendly diplomatic ties with Egypt governed by Brotherhood so I guess no fuss is made and normal diplomacy ensues and tourism on Egypt will remain popular. I dont think it will even be that bad for Egypt since it has always been very moderate on islam and because tourism is such a great economic boost for country they would be quite stupid to endanger countrys stature as a tourism choice by international hostility.
Only real international concern for Egypt under Muslim Brotherhood is their relationship with Israel and entire Gaza/Egypt/Israel affair. Since Israel has understandibly quite bad reputation amongs egyptians, new goverment might be tempted to boost their popularity by taking more hostile stance against Israel what can increase tensions in that volatile area. Gaza affair between two neighbour countrys can get quite tense.
I personally dislike possibility of MB winning elections because I dont think that any religion generally should be mixed with governing country and because certain fundmendalist values might be enforced and stature of women and minoritys might be further weakened. But also I can understand that there is very little choice because Mubarak completely suffocated any kind of political opposition and party structure on Egypt during his long long reign and since Muslim Brotherhood is pretty much only organisated...well political movement/party there is quite a little options left for Egyptians to make.
I only hope that egyptians can now at last start their climb towards multiparty democracy and that Brotherhood will give Egypt a chance to transform in proper democratic state.
Turkey is a moderate Muslim country, Bangladesh is a moderate Muslim country, and stuff like Albania and Azerbaijan are pretty much secular Muslim countries. Egypt is nowhere close to these.
It's not even that. Egyptians are very conservative religious people.I personally dislike possibility of MB winning elections because I dont think that any religion generally should be mixed with governing country and because certain fundmendalist values might be enforced and stature of women and minoritys might be further weakened. But also I can understand that there is very little choice because Mubarak completely suffocated any kind of political opposition and party structure on Egypt during his long long reign and since Muslim Brotherhood is pretty much only organisated...well political movement/party there is quite a little options left for Egyptians to make.
The Brotherhood isn't the boogeyman many people think it is (the Salafi parties on the other hand...). Sure they're definitely more conservative and hardline than their counterpart parties in Tunisia and I assume Libya (might need to ask Bar Kum about that), to say nothing of Erdogan's party in Turkey.
But way I see it, democracy may tame them. And over time they may evolve toward more moderate pragmatic minded politics, and let the readical religious bullshit stick to the fringe with the Salafi parties. Already there's indication of this within them, with younger members being more moderate and so forth than the older ones. Which is a good sign. Unfortunately this means being patient with it. It won't be ideal, and it will ruffle Western feathers to a degree as well as be tense with Israel. But as long as nothing gets...set off. Egypt should grind toward better horizons. Yes grind, but frankly agonizing slow grinds are what usually happens with these things. So that's what a realistic optimist should see as good.
I'm more concerned about the military really.I only hope that egyptians can now at last start their climb towards multiparty democracy and that Brotherhood will give Egypt a chance to transform in proper democratic state.
Does anyone have any recommended news sites for getting information, or just browse around for it in general? Or would it be Aljazeera like before? Also, I'd be curious if there's a certain site where you'll get your general types of news as well if you'll care to.
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