Recession Revolutions Thread Part II: Arabia and Beyond

[Monkey King]

Syrian Defense Minister killed:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18882149
Edit: So has Assad's brother in Law apparently.

Three major officials, those two plus another guy. Plus some other wounded officials.
This is FUCKING HUGE lol. Gotdamn.
I was reading about Assad's brother in law the other day! Now he gone!

EDIT: Four deaths I think (not counting the bomber). Goddamn, godddddamn, whoo!

[Ubiq]

Rahja was the government's highest ranked Christian official... speaking of religious minorities, what is the Syrian Druze population up to these days? They're supposed to be on pretty good terms with Assad, but having a revolution in Syria without the Druze involved just seems wrong.

[Gliblord]

Was Assad's brother in law important?

[Monkey King]

Was Assad's brother in law important?

Yes, not as important as he once was I think, but remember these regimes are all pretty much miniature Corleone families. All the men are capos and shit.

[Ubiq]

It's really who he was more than what he is since that kill strikes close to home for Assad.

The fact that the bomber was a bodyguard for a member of Assad's inner circle is pretty important; if it was some random guy that lucked out and killed somebody important, that'd be one thing, but somebody close like that will make Assad suspicious of everyone.

[Monkey King]

It's really who he was more than what he is. The fact that the bomber was a bodyguard for a member of Assad's inner circle is pretty important; if it was some random guy that lucked out and killed somebody important, that'd be one thing, but somebody close like that will make Assad suspicious of everyone.

There's conflicting reports about what the explosion was from. Some sources say a suicide bodyguard, some are saying a remote bomb was planted there.

[No Maam]

There's conflicting reports about what the explosion was from. Some sources say a suicide bodyguard, some are saying a remote bomb was planted there.

Five bucks says someone will blame it on Israel.

[Ubiq]

Assad has reportedly left Damascus for Latakia; there is some dispute as to when he did this. Some say that he's been there for days while others say he fled after the bombing. There are also reports that his wife and children have fled the country altogether and may be in Russia. There were a lot of rumors earlier today that Assad was also wounded in the attack, but he made a television appearance to show the appointment of the new Defense Minister.

The UN Security Council attempted to pass a resolution yesterday that would have imposed economic sanctions on Syria if government troops did not withdraw from population centers within ten days. It was vetoed by Russia and China on the grounds that they're still being dicks about this whole thing.

[Shandian]

The UN Security Council attempted to pass a resolution yesterday that would have imposed economic sanctions on Syria if government troops did not withdraw from population centers within ten days. It was vetoed by Russia and China on the grounds that they're still being dicks about this whole thing.

With the recent events I think Rebels might be baggin this whole war in week or two, Russia keeps playing dick to hold its death grip on Russian friendly Syria but I really dont think new goverment of post war Syria will be that sympatethic for Russia after all its Assad lovin'. Russia's naval base might get kicked out of country and that would serve Putin just right.

I fear that Syrian people wont know peace for a while even if Assad goes down, there are so many ethnic groups and organisations.

[Monkey King]

I'm wondering if Assad will hold out with the Alawis in the area of Syria on the sea. I can even see there being a break up of Syria from this if that works for him. I hope not.

[Ubiq]

Besides being in strong Alawi territory, Latakia also offers the advantage of being a port city as well in case he needs to get the hell out of Dodge. He can either slip out to sea or run down to Tartus in the hopes that the Russians will get him out.

Escape routes are relatively limited for him especially seeing as how rebels have seized the checkpoints on the Turkish and Iraqi borders.

[Monkey King]

Besides being in strong Alawi territory, Latakia also offers the advantage of being a port city as well in case he needs to get the hell out of Dodge. He can either slip out to sea or run down to Tartus in the hopes that the Russians will get him out.

Escape routes are relatively limited for him especially seeing as how rebels have seized the checkpoints on the Turkish and Iraqi borders.

The problem with going to Russia is Turkey would not have any of that.

Honestly....Cyprus? There's definitely political corruption with a Russian slant there. They "mysteriously" lost a Russian spy that had been caught, and he "managed to escape" back to Russia.
Of course even Christiafos wouldn't dare pull that shit with Assad, god forbid.

[No Maam]

Omar Suleiman, the former Inteligence Chief and Vice President (for like five minutes) under Mubarak, dies.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18899004

[Monkey King]

Apparently the Kurds have more definitively turned on the Syrian regime, though are keeping themselves apart from the FSA.

[Ubiq]

Any chance of them trying to declare an independent state?

[Monkey King]

Any chance of them trying to declare an independent state?

Considering the Iraqi Kurds have made out really well just being autonomous, I wouldn't be surprised if the Kurds here figured that it's not worth risking further civil war.

I wonder if there is any way the four Kurdish areas could remain parts of their states in the future but also have like some weird deal where they function as one at the same time.

[Monkey King]

Apparently the guy who pinned the Lebanese Presidential assassination on anti-Syrian Lebanese factions (after saying it was Syria earlier) has been captured by rebels.
He says he wants to be sent to Beirut. And the rebels seem to be planning for this.

Simply it would seem that he's gonna pin the assassination on Assad and maybe Hezbollah as well, which likely it was in the first place. The assassinated president was not in Syria's interests sooo....
He's not the only mysteriously assassinated Lebanese politician either.
This is what I mean in that the fall of Assad has potential in stabilizing Lebanon as much it does throwing things into crazy again.

[Ubiq]

In the form of discrediting Hezbollah and removing one of its chief supporters you mean?

The Arab League has apparently offered Assad safe passage out of Syria if he resigns though where to isn't being said.

[Monkey King]

In the form of discrediting Hezbollah and removing one of its chief supporters you mean?

Yeah, of course blatant evidence that the Shia Triangle (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah) was behind the assassination, or even the other deaths, would supremely discredit Hezbollah.
Of course that might just draw the lines between the factions even deeper. The Lebanese Shia don't cling to Hezbollah because it's an angel, but because they feel protected by it. It could turn the Christians against it entirely, some of the Christian politicians tolerate Hezbollah.

But Hezbollah isn't gonna be exactly healthy in any way if Assad falls.

[Monkey King]

Alright I want folks to look at this.
http://geocurrents.info/wp-content/u...ligion-Map.jpg
http://www.nationsonline.org/maps/Sy...raphic-Map.jpg
http://www.lonelyplanet.com/maps/mid...p_of_syria.jpg

Things have moved up now so that Damascus and Aleppo are both in play. Though it could take a bit the rebels will probably push the Assad forces out of both of them. In fact because there's two cities involved it might be even harder for Assad to put down the rebels.
Like a bugs bunny skit or something, he beats em back in one, they pop up again in the other. And if this a war of attrition it's Assad who will lose.

But the point of the maps? Cross-reference the coastal area.
See a looming potential problem? If the rebels manage to successfully push the regime out of the main cities and thus really all the rest of the country. It would seem Assad and company could hold out in the coastal area due to demographics.

Now I do recall the main city in that area, Latakia, getting attacked by the regime's navy, but otherwise the majorly Alawite area is not rising up.
The secretarian problem keeps lurking in the back here, the Syrian's cause is too good too commendable. It would fucking suck if it became a genocidal war. Especially is Assad can use that to survive in the coast.