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Thread: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

  1. #12821

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    This is...a good thing, I assume, given the conditions of the ruling?

    I mean I'm guessing fewer Rorschach shapes and more trapezoids means fewer shenanigans.

  2. #12822

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Yes, in a normal (ie. 2012, 2016) election, Democrats would add three more seats to their current four (out of 18). In a wave election, that would obviously be more.

  3. #12823
    Dog does not approve. onemoment's Avatar
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    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by sgamer82 View Post
    Not including the "March For Our Lives," this must be the dumbest collection of news articles on this page. This administration has nearly lost the nuclear football, while haphazardly giving out classified information while a bunch of idiots ask Trump to abuse his pardon authority (moreso then he has already). Meanwhile, Trump seems to think that that the FBI doesn't have the manpower to do more then two things.

    Trump really is the trailer trash President.

  4. #12824

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Is that a balanced map? Pennsylvanian Republicans made one that was much less contorted but still equally gerrymandered.

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    Ah it's a map drawn by the state Supreme Court. Very good.

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  5. #12825

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    It’s still favourable to Republicans, but less so than before: https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottm...08827034374144

  6. #12826

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by Kaiolino View Post
    It’s still favourable to Republicans, but less so than before: https://mobile.twitter.com/gelliottm...08827034374144
    That's something Pennsylvania has to live with demographically. Because Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are overwhelmingly blue while the rest of the state is heavily red, any technique that places importance on compactness and county lines SHOULD favor Republicans. FiveThirtyEight tried to gerrymandered the state for Dems and got a 9-9 split at best.

    Worth noting that the Pennsylvania Democrats released their own proposed map that gave them a 7-11 split (aka less than or equal to this SC map). Way to undersell yourself, guys.

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  7. #12827

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Any district designs that give less weight to population than they do to geography are going to benefit Republicans.
    Complicating things since 2009.

  8. #12828

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    About lying maps who lie: https://xkcd.com/1939/
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  9. #12829

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by Ubiq View Post
    Any district designs that give less weight to population than they do to geography are going to benefit Republicans.
    See especially Texas. Where all the big cities with most of the population are democrat blue, but the giant swathes of wide open space with populations of a dozen people are all red. So when the final results come out it looks like the map is 90-10 red, even though the numbers are closer to 55-45.

    Hidden:
    area


    population

    Most of those counties in the bottom corner have a population of a few thousand, the smallest only a few hundred. Meanwhile San Antonio, Dallas and Austin have populations of 1.5 million.
    Last edited by Robby; February 19th, 2018 at 05:01 PM.

  10. #12830
    Discovered Stowaway Bugs's Avatar
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    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    A big problem with Pennsylvania is that the Pittsburgh is getting redder. This isn't even a new thing; I think pretty much every Democrat candidate starting with Bill has done worse than the previous one.

  11. #12831

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by Ubiq View Post
    Any district designs that give less weight to population than they do to geography are going to benefit Republicans.
    I mean that's definitely not what's happening with any part of gerrymandering. The whole point of redistricting as mandated by the Constitution is to keep the number of people in each district relatively equal.

    Cities are usually overwhelmingly Democratic. Any system that, rather logically, attempts to group people by shared interests will group those heavily Democratic constituents in a few counties. Unless you're specifically gerrymandering for competitive elections, that Republican advantage is unavoidable as long as Democrats self-segregate. It's got nothing to do with prioritizing geography.

    Using county borders is usually a non-issue. It's a pre-existing organizational boundary that makes it easier for people to know where to vote. And in most cases east of the Rockies, counties are tiny squares that can be easily combined to form population-balanced districts.

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  12. #12832
    Someone call for Zeidoktor sgamer82's Avatar
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    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by onemoment View Post
    Not including the "March For Our Lives," this must be the dumbest collection of news articles on this page. This administration has nearly lost the nuclear football, while haphazardly giving out classified information while a bunch of idiots ask Trump to abuse his pardon authority (moreso then he has already). Meanwhile, Trump seems to think that that the FBI doesn't have the manpower to do more then two things.

    Trump really is the trailer trash President.
    The nuclear football thing actually sounds like a minor, quickly handled incident. More like a security guy either didn't get a memo or messed with us delegates anyway.

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  13. #12833

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwok View Post
    I mean that's definitely not what's happening with any part of gerrymandering. The whole point of redistricting as mandated by the Constitution is to keep the number of people in each district relatively equal.
    except it doesn't work out that way BECAUSE the cities are the population centers.

    Again, look at Texas. Population of 27 million. Houston alone is 2.5 million. Add in San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Houston, El Paso and Fort Worth and they make up 8.5 million of the population.

    7 cities are a full third of Texas' large population. And yet you look at the representative maps which are decided by land mass rather than population, and they only make up a super tiny portion of it. Out of 36 district, 7 go blue and 29 don't. Even though it's 1/3 of the population it's only getting 1/4 representation. (A couple other districts DID go blue, but it doesn't change the populated ones being less represeted.)

    Going off landmass is flawed, the same problem as the electoral college in general which gives far to much weight to unpopulated center states, giving individual voters 4-5 times more weight than someone in a populated state.

    Unless you're specifically gerrymandering for competitive elections, that Republican advantage is unavoidable as long as Democrats self-segregate.
    "Self-segregate?" Yes, how dare people live in cities, with their jobs and their technology and their starbucks and avacodo toast.

    The problem is weighing by land area and not population.
    Last edited by Robby; February 19th, 2018 at 07:18 PM.

  14. #12834

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwok View Post
    I mean that's definitely not what's happening with any part of gerrymandering. The whole point of redistricting as mandated by the Constitution is to keep the number of people in each district relatively equal.
    But that isn't remotely happening; if that were the case, the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metropolitan areas would account for two-thirds of the Congressional delegation for Pennsylvania rather than around half which is the situation even with the new map.
    Complicating things since 2009.

  15. #12835

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by Ubiq View Post
    But that isn't remotely happening; if that were the case, the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metropolitan areas would account for two-thirds of the Congressional delegation for Pennsylvania rather than around half which is the situation even with the new map.
    Not exactly. I'm assuming you're going by greater metropolitan area statistics to get those ratios since the combined populations of the official cities of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia is 2 million and the population of Philadelphia is 12 million. The GMAs do total up to 8 million, but there are a few problems with comparing those totals to the map:

    1) The Philadelphia greater metropolitan area spills into both Delaware and New Jersey- the people in those two portions make up a quarter of the GMA population. So that's 4.5 million in southeastern Pennsylvania comprising approximately seven districts in the new map (all blue). 4.5/12= 0.375. 7/18= 0.389. That's pretty close.

    2) The Pittsburgh GMA is broken up over a couple different districts, but the main differentiator from the Philadelphia GMA is that only the Pittsburgh core is blue. The two other districts that are primarily in the Pittsburgh area are both red, with other (red) portions being part of a fourth and fifth district. The comparison is less clean, but 2.5/12= 0.208 and 3.5/18= 0.1944. Also pretty close proportions.

    So realistically, the new state Supreme Court map does a pretty decent job of representing those areas.

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  16. #12836

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by Jabberwok View Post
    The whole point of redistricting as mandated by the Constitution is to keep the number of people in each district relatively equal.

    Cities are usually overwhelmingly Democratic.

    that Republican advantage is unavoidable as long as Democrats self-segregate.
    This logic isn't following at all.

    Using county borders is usually a non-issue.
    This is total nonsense.
    It's a pre-existing organizational boundary that makes it easier for people to know where to vote.


    People vote in large public buildings (usually schools) in their town, so in what regard do counties enter the picture here?

    And in most cases east of the Rockies, counties are tiny squares that can be easily combined to form population-balanced districts.
    Yeah sure dude. Let's take the four western CT counties and make a district, and four eastern CT countries and make a district.
    So now we have one representative for 700,000 people, and one for almost 3 million. Because them squares are clearly distributed to reflect the populations.
    Last edited by Monkey King; February 19th, 2018 at 09:29 PM.

  17. #12837

    Default Re: American Politics thread: No Nazis Allowed

    Quote Originally Posted by Robby View Post
    except it doesn't work out that way BECAUSE the cities are the population centers.

    Again, look at Texas. Population of 27 million. Houston alone is 2.5 million. Add in San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Houston, El Paso and Fort Worth and they make up 8.5 million of the population.

    7 cities are a full third of Texas' large population. And yet you look at the representative maps which are decided by land mass rather than population, and they only make up a super tiny portion of it. Out of 36 district, 7 go blue and 29 don't. Even though it's 1/3 of the population it's only getting 1/4 representation. (A couple other districts DID go blue, but it doesn't change the populated ones being less represeted.)

    Going off landmass is flawed, the same problem as the electoral college in general which gives far to much weight to unpopulated center states, giving individual voters 4-5 times more weight than someone in a populated state.
    You're certainly more qualified to speak about Texas's demographics than I am so I'm not going to argue too much. Given Texas's total number of Democratic votes in 2016, it should absolutely have more Democrats as representatives. And a quick look at some of the state's congressional districts makes it pretty easy to confirm that there's some serious gerrymandering going on in places. Complaining about land masses and representation doesn't really work when the people drawing the maps aren't playing fair.

    "Self-segregate?" Yes, how dare people live in cities, with their jobs and their technology and their starbucks and avacodo toast.

    The problem is weighing by land area and not population.
    I'm not knocking the decision to move to/live in cities. Cities are cool. I'm merely pointing out that from a purely vote-getting perspective, liberals congregating in cities is a suboptimal strategy. A population that heavily leans towards on political party 'wastes' votes by running up a big margin. It's the equivalent of people saying they should move to Ohio so their votes in presidential election actually matter.

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    Quote Originally Posted by Monkey King View Post
    This is total nonsense.

    People vote in large public buildings (usually schools) in their town, so in what regard do counties enter the picture here?
    It's a simple rubric to avoid splitting things up beyond what's necessary. A classic gerrymandering example is that the representative will be the only person on his street in his district while everyone else on the street votes in an adjacent one. It keeps people from getting as confused- if you're in County A, you vote in District N. Like I said, placing district lines along long-standing county lines where possible keeps things simple.

    Yeah sure dude. Let's take the four western CT counties and make a district, and four eastern CT countries and make a district.
    So now we have one representative for 700,000 people, and one for almost 3 million. Because them squares are clearly distributed to reflect the populations.
    This is a willful misinterpretation since I specifically said population-balanced. But sure, let me try again.

    Most little square districts don't have many people. To use the earlier Pennsylvania example, a lot of the rural counties have a population of under 100,000. It's not too difficult to add eight of those adjacent counties to get close to the target ~650,000 people per congressional district. Other disticts of course have more. Maybe two adjacent ~250,000 counties and a ~100,000 county make up another district. And then there's Philadelphia County, with 1.5 million. That county needs to be split in half and potentially even mixed with another adjacent county to get closer to the target population.

    To say that small counties make convenient building blocks doesn't mean that they're all equal. It means that it makes it easier to combine a bunch of the rural ones to equal the population of a few plural ones, particularly because most of those little counties have small populations.

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