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Thread: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

  1. #81

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Quote Originally Posted by Sky View Post
    #10 sounds good to me. Sorry I was a little late in arriving, I hadn't realized the official game start had happened.

    I also don't agree with this. The idea that a majority of people will likely be making up any sort of visiting seems to be counterintuitive. While we might be able to determine who is making it up, that doesn't determine whether they are townie or a mafia member.

    That's a legitimate stance, but I wholeheartedly disagree on lynching on the first day, especially with such a small game.
    Isn't a no-lynch on day 1 one of the worst things that Town can do for itself? It's like giving the Mafia a free night to do whatever they want, and only they have the benefit of the information from our conversations on day 1. As far as I see it, only lynches can catch Mafia, and we should use them liberally. Otherwise the night kill ratio goes up, and that can only spell doom for the town, right?

    As far as showing up late, I can understand that, I also only realized the game had started because I was checking the thread every 12 hours or so. Missed the chance to get number 9 out of the gate.

    But I don't like the "no lynch day 1" argument you're making here, so I'll go ahead and jump in with Foolio.

    Vote Lynch: Sky

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    Quote Originally Posted by Foolio View Post
    Benefit is if the cop dies (assuming there is one), you have their investigation history confirmed. This is very good for the town, although there could always be complications such as a godfather role (a mafioso who shows up innocent to cops). Main downside is the mafia could start weeding out false claims (like, anyone who claims they got an innocent report on a guilty player) and have better odds of finding and killing the true cop... again, assuming one exists. My personal universal downside is people getting caught up trying to analyze all these theoretical results and waiting for some kind of conclusive evidence instead of scum hunting.


    I am not counting on the details of the setup suddenly becoming clear. This is not looking like an open setup so who knows how many scum there are or what the roles look like. And everyone probably knows how much I hate twiddling my thumbs. So to that end:

    Vote Lynch: Sky

    Will always be a proponent of getting things rolling from day one. Inactivity is an easy early vote.
    I see what you're saying about the hypo-cop scenario. Something tells me that it would only serve as a distraction, and I also don't like that it might help the Mafia track down any Townies with powers (if they exist). So, for now, I'm not a fan of it.

    Perhaps the setup will become clearer by start of day 2... I'm hoping that we'll at least be able to piece together why we were made to choose numbers. Maybe with the number choices, we have picked the person whose vest we get to test tonight, or maybe we picked the person who will test our vest.

  2. #82
    *Angry Catra noises* Shuhan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    [QUOTE=Shuhan;4079996]With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch:

    Sky (2)= Foolio, Kirbycide

    not voting
    SuDoKu
    JibJab
    Foxy Loxy
    Sky
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    Huschel



    You have a little under 22 hours.

  3. #83
    Yohohohohoho~! SkullJoke's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Quote Originally Posted by Kirbycide View Post
    Isn't a no-lynch on day 1 one of the worst things that Town can do for itself? It's like giving the Mafia a free night to do whatever they want, and only they have the benefit of the information from our conversations on day 1. As far as I see it, only lynches can catch Mafia, and we should use them liberally. Otherwise the night kill ratio goes up, and that can only spell doom for the town, right?
    Ehhh I don't see it that way. On the first day, if we lynch without much to go on, the odds are higher that the lynch will take out a townie, not a mafia. And that brings the mafia one day closer to their victory.


    But I don't like the "no lynch day 1" argument you're making here, so I'll go ahead and jump in with Foolio.

    Vote Lynch: Sky

    Inactivity we can all agree is a detriment to the town. But for the reason stated, to me, this feels like you're just adding on to a person who has a vote (for a different reason), hoping the votes will stick. FWIW, there hasn't seemed to be a "we must Lynch" vibe from most of the players, most have remained silent, Jabberwok and I even saying we should give the easy inactivity vote some more time before lynching. And No Swords Style said he's waiting to hear from Sky and Kitsune to see if he wants to lynch or not.


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  4. #84

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Quote Originally Posted by SkullJoke View Post
    Ehhh I don't see it that way. On the first day, if we lynch without much to go on, the odds are higher that the lynch will take out a townie, not a mafia. And that brings the mafia one day closer to their victory.

    Inactivity we can all agree is a detriment to the town. But for the reason stated, to me, this feels like you're just adding on to a person who has a vote (for a different reason), hoping the votes will stick. FWIW, there hasn't seemed to be a "we must Lynch" vibe from most of the players, most have remained silent, Jabberwok and I even saying we should give the easy inactivity vote some more time before lynching. And No Swords Style said he's waiting to hear from Sky and Kitsune to see if he wants to lynch or not.
    Yes, with next to no information to go on, it's definitely more likely for the lynch to hit a Townie. But the lynch also gives us some more information to work with on day 2, so we should consider that.

    Also, there is some chance that the lynch will hit scum, and that can't be discounted. It's true that there is little we know about the setup so far, but I highly doubt that the mafia will be able to be killed by anything but a lynch or a townie with power (and we don't know if they exist yet). To not use a lynch is to miss an opportunity to kill scum.

    I understand how my vote might seem to you, but I already explained that the inactivity didn't factor in to my decision. I'm only voting because of Sky's defense that a no lynch on day 1 is the best action. I wholeheartedly disagree, and think this is a weak defense for a townie. That's why I voted.

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    Also, since I'm new at this, does an accidental lynch of a townie on day 1 actually bring the mafia 1 day closer to victory? Doesn't that depend on how many mafia there are and whether there are an even or an odd number of players? Can someone with more experience here share their thoughts?

  5. #85

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Quote Originally Posted by Kirbycide View Post
    Yes, with next to no information to go on, it's definitely more likely for the lynch to hit a Townie. But the lynch also gives us some more information to work with on day 2, so we should consider that.

    Also, there is some chance that the lynch will hit scum, and that can't be discounted. It's true that there is little we know about the setup so far, but I highly doubt that the mafia will be able to be killed by anything but a lynch or a townie with power (and we don't know if they exist yet). To not use a lynch is to miss an opportunity to kill scum.

    I understand how my vote might seem to you, but I already explained that the inactivity didn't factor in to my decision. I'm only voting because of Sky's defense that a no lynch on day 1 is the best action. I wholeheartedly disagree, and think this is a weak defense for a townie. That's why I voted.

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    Also, since I'm new at this, does an accidental lynch of a townie on day 1 actually bring the mafia 1 day closer to victory? Doesn't that depend on how many mafia there are and whether there are an even or an odd number of players? Can someone with more experience here share their thoughts?
    A Day 1 lynch shortens a worst-case scenario game in which the Town never finds a Mafia and there's no lucky defense put forth by a Doctor or some other role.

    With 10 players, let's assume 2 Mafia, as that allows for up to 3 mis-lynches before losing the game. That's a pretty standard timeframe. Assuming, again, the worst case scenario that the Town has no effective defenders, a Town that lynches on Day 1 has a 40% chance of losing on Night 3. That happens if we always guess wrong and the Mafia successfully kills each night. In contrast, waiting until Day 2 to lynch means that the probably of mis-lynching three times in a row goes down to 33% and would end the game on Day 4. That's an extra day of debate and an extra night's murder to use as a data point too, which quite simply gives the Town a better chance of winning.

    I have never bought the argument that because the Town's best collective weapon is a lunch, we should be indiscriminate in using it. We're always more likely to hit a Townie than scum with a random lynch, which means the scum benefit. A bloodthirsty Town is only marginally better than a completely aimless one but both help the enemy.

    Wait until we have at least some information. The best thing we can do today is be active, give opinions, and build a profile. If no one's active we absolutely shouldn't lynch, particularly when we have no clue of the setup.

    If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life

  6. #86

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    That all makes a lot of sense, but without the risk of a lynching, what reason do people have to be active on day 1?

    More activity means more information, too, right? Personally, I'd prefer to see more people posting.

    Also, I don't buy the argument that any lynch is ever done completely at random. We at least know that the scum, if there is any, will have more information than us, and the way they choose to interact on day 1, including what lynch votes they give or don't give, will tell us something.

  7. #87

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Being active helps everyone. If you're killed, your posts might help give some clues for why you were targeted. It gives other Townie roles more to work with too in terms of what actions they might take. Also, it's a game. We're in it because we want to participate. In theory.

    But yeah, more posting from more people would be good.

    If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life

  8. #88

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Just to be clear, when you say that being active helps everyone, do you mean that more activity can also help the scum?

  9. #89

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Hmm. In initially writing that, I was thinking everyone to mean all Townies. Inactivity definitely helps scum because less information helps them. But I think there's probably a level of too much activity that helps them as well, in that a Town that's a bit too active can get fixated on weird things or be easily distracted by constant accusations. That's pretty rare in my experience though.

    Scum will also attempt to dominate discussion in order to lead lynches themselves. Fewer active voices makes that easier. So I'd say that in almost all cases, more general activity favors the Town over scum.

    If you get dunked on in the dream, you get dunked on in real life

  10. #90

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    I see where you're going with that, and I agree. More posting could be beneficial for the scum, but I think that the benefits it would give the town are far greater.

    So... where is everyone? Hopefully having a good holiday.

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    Here. Maybe this can encourage some more discussion.

    Foolio, you originally voted for Sky because she was the last person to make a first post. Now that Sky has responded, do you intend to unvote? If not, then can you explain why?

  11. #91

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    I'm with Kirby in that lynching is what Town does and really the only thing we're good at. The flip will give us information, but more importantly, people's stances towards lynching might tell us something. At the very least, figuring out a person to lynch together will have people engage more, post more, and therefore give Town more to analyze.

    That being said, I'm not exactly convinced that Sky should be the target. She's not the worst one either, still just based on activity level. But others are similarly an option. I'll wait and see a little while longer.

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    Eh. Might as well.

    Vote Lynch: Kitsune Inferno

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    Spoiler:


  12. #92

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Phew, sticking to my timezone's not helping me any.

    To answer about my mum/dad thing: yeah, it was just me joking around. "Referring to No Swords" was indicating my initial support of the hypo-cop idea. At the time, not gonna lie I genuinely thought it was a good idea. I see that it wasn't a good idea now.

  13. #93

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Wow, people agreeing with me about a day 1 lynch? I'm shocked =P

    My vote was purely due to inactivity. Honestly didn't expect anyone to jump on that wagon after she did post... in this case just due to her stance of not lynching day 1. Honestly makes me a little uncomfortable. But at least Kirby is being active and I'll give the benefit of the doubt for now.

    Unvote

    Raw odds of random lynching and worst case scenario aside, the game is about hunting scum, not waiting to see if we happen to catch someone red-handed. That said we don't have that much time left. Inactivity is still the worst enemy, at all times but especially early on. Kitsu's on my radar too after checking in early on followed by silence.

  14. #94

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Correction: No Swords' idea was not hypo-cop, I get that, I was confused on the name.
    My stance is that the hypo-whatever strategy suggested by No Swords, could definitely help down the line, but that's only assuming no alignment-askew roles like Godfather, and that everyone participates and understands the method. And that it's confusing and potentially incriminating until it helps.

  15. #95

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    That's fair enough, Foolio. The only thing I care about right now is that we try to work together to get a lynch on day 1. Because as I've said before, I think that will give town the most information for us to use on day 2. It might also give townies with special roles (assuming they even exist) more information to work with on night 1. So, the next logical thing for me to do would be:

    Unvote

    Vote Lynch: Kitsune Inferno

  16. #96

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    I'm against Day 1 lynching, normally, outside of a juicy target coming up.

    With that said: Huschel, why'd you vote for Kitsune instead of me when targeting inactive players?

    Kirbycide: What's your current stance on inactivity given recent discussions?

  17. #97

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Quote Originally Posted by SomebodyUDon'tKnow View Post
    Correction: No Swords' idea was not hypo-cop, I get that, I was confused on the name.
    My stance is that the hypo-whatever strategy suggested by No Swords, could definitely help down the line, but that's only assuming no alignment-askew roles like Godfather, and that everyone participates and understands the method. And that it's confusing and potentially incriminating until it helps.
    Well, hypo cop and Swordy's plan are two totally different things. I'm not entirely opposed to hypo cop, if everyone else is on board. Seems like others would like more clarity on the setup though. In contrast I think Swordy's idea would definitely be bad for the town.

  18. #98

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Quote Originally Posted by SomebodyUDon'tKnow View Post
    Kirbycide: What's your current stance on inactivity given recent discussions?
    I think that, unless and until the discussion gets so frenetic that it's hard to keep track of all the threads, more activity will always be more favorable for town.

    That means inactivity is probably one of the worst things for town in my eyes.

  19. #99
    *Angry Catra noises* Shuhan's Avatar
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    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch:

    Kitsune Inferno (2)= Kirbycide, Huschel

    not voting
    SuDoKu
    JibJab
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    Sky
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    Foolio


    You have 17 hours to lynch.
    Last edited by Shuhan; September 7th, 2020 at 05:22 PM.

  20. #100

    Default Re: Fan the Hammer: A Mafia Game

    Aw fuck I said I clarified the difference and then went on to explain a weird mishmash of the two.

    So I can see No Swords' plan working assuming everyone participates and understands, but the benefit would come later and would be messy and possibly incriminating/self-targeting until it helps.
    Hypo-cop works assuming no alignment-askew roles like Godfather., and could possibly incriminating/self-targeting until it helps.

    Overall now that I've read arguments against No Swords' idea, I'm against both ideas. Good discussion potential, but could lead to people making themselves Mafia targets.

    --- Update From New Post Merge ---

    Did I miss Foolio's voting for Kitsune?

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